Conditional on Manifold integrating with crypto in some way, will it have at least 10,000 DAUs at the end of 2023?

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Many people seem to be talking about adding some sort of cryptocurrency integration to Manifold. I have concerns about this idea. When I asked the developers about what the benefits of crypto would be in a recent AMA, the only answers were "it lets us appeal more to people in the crypto space" and "something something decentralization, we haven't really figured out how that would work or why it'd be good". No one mentioned a significant benefit that crypto would provide to the platform's functionality. While appealing to more users is a good thing in and of itself, cryptocurrency is a hot culture war topic at the moment. Manifold aligning itself with crypto may well result in losing access to millions of potential users who are vehemently opposed to crypto. I'm not convinced this tradeoff would be a net positive for the site. In the bigger picture, many other prediction markets are run with crypto in order to get around gambling regulations, and many of the same people who are into crypto are also into prediction markets, so there's already an association between the two in public discourse. Given the potential benefits of widespread adoption of prediction markets, it seems important that the community push back against this association and try to keep general discourse about prediction markets from becoming politically polarized. Accordingly, there may be value in having some prediction markets that intentionally distance themselves from the cryptosphere. Apr 5, 4:41pm: Other half here: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/conditional-on-manifold-not-integra

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This morning Isaac decided to spam post on all my markets lying about me. I pondered for a bit why someone would do that. I came up with some potential reasons but none definitive of course.

Were his feelings hurt because I dismissed him the other day with a single word?

Did his autism simply flare up?

Did he ran out of his medication?

Maybe seeing his father's belt triggered some bad childhood memories.

Or perhaps his favourite cuckold website got shut down.

Is there a chance that his coworkers found out about his latex fetish?

Could it be that someone saw him peeing in his basement?

Was it his mom who saw him peeing in his basement?

Did the experience embarrass or arouse him?

All quite probable causes for Isaac soy rage posting at me. Regardless, his posts gave inspiration to this market and I think he will appreciate me emulating him a bit by posting this market on his markets as well.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@M that would def suck if the homepage was just "will shitcoin be above $x on y" but ideally communities/tags would control for that. You could ignore all of the crypto related markets

bought Ṁ10 of YES

We can't build new epistemic institutions out of reputation alone. We want people and the institutions they found to survive off of their ability to make money discovering the truth. The only way people (in the US) can make money off of accurate predictions is through crypto. Thus, we should integrate it. Also, I'm not sure MAU is the right metric here. I'd think volume is closer to the mark.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

At least I would leave if it would become cryptocurrency-infested and start pushing scammy ICO etc. Or start requiring dealing with BTC/ETC/etc

bought Ṁ20 of NO

"Integrating with crypto" could mean an almost insignificant change. However, I think that the prior probability of 10k DAUs by 2024 is already well under 25%, and the probability of 10k DAUs by 2024 conditional on turning the currency into cryptocurrency and requiring users to connect a wallet to perform trades (what I envision by default when you say "integrating with crypto") is extremely low, probably well under 5%. Polymarket could be an interesting comparison -- they seem well-run, they have built up trust in their market resolution team, their website seems better, they have more mindshare, they have enough volume that you can make real money, but I don't think they are anywhere close to 10k DAUs. The only advantage that Manifold seems to have is the "everyone can create a market and resolve it for themselves" design, but that design will have to be heavily revised anyway to survive at the 10k DAU level if M$ is worth anything.

bought Ṁ20 of NO

I think Manifold should focus on being as close to a real-money prediction market as possible, letting people deposit money via whatever payment methods Stripe supports. If that includes any crypto, great. If not, Manifold shouldn't add special support for it.