By the end of 2023, will any real-world event have had at least 50 different Manifold markets about it with near-identical resolution criteria?
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690Ṁ6490resolved Jan 2
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Duplicate of this market, with a higher threshold and not retroactive.
The resolution criteria of the 50 markets don't have to be exactly the same, they just need to be similar enough that they can easily be arbitraged against each other.
I will ignore any markets that seem to be trying to manipulate this one, such as one person creating 50 identical markets, or someone placing a large bet on YES in this market right as they create the 50th one on some other event.
If this has already happened prior to market creation, that doesn't count. Must be a future occurrance.
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