By the end of 2023, will any real-world event have had at least 50 different Manifold markets about it with near-identical resolution criteria?
38
144
690
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Duplicate of this market, with a higher threshold and not retroactive.

The resolution criteria of the 50 markets don't have to be exactly the same, they just need to be similar enough that they can easily be arbitraged against each other.

I will ignore any markets that seem to be trying to manipulate this one, such as one person creating 50 identical markets, or someone placing a large bet on YES in this market right as they create the 50th one on some other event.

If this has already happened prior to market creation, that doesn't count. Must be a future occurrance.

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bought Ṁ30 of NO

What if someone manipulates this market by spam creating 50 markets about the same question? If that’s not allowed, I think specifying this in the description would be good.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing Oh whoops, never mind lol. Idk why I didn’t read that.

What if the markets don’t start off as identical but become identical due to a change in circumstances? An example of this is that by the time of the World Cup Final, “Will Argentina win?”, “Will Brazil or Argentina win?” and “Will a team from South America win?” were all equivalent, though they weren’t when they were created.

@lisamarsh Doesn't count, they need to have been created mostly-identical.

Are these specifically Manifold markets, or any publically accessible prediction markets across various platforms?

@MattCWilson Manifold markets

@IsaacKing thanks for clarifying, and updating the market title! Can I suggest you do the same for the linked market's title as well?