Will there be more than 1GW of in-space solar power generation by 2030?
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Ṁ1992030
16%
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This would be for an average, not peak, so after accounting for intermittency. Credible estimates will be accepted as source to resolve YES. Solar power does not have to be beamed back, power is counted after conversion to electricity, but before use
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Here's my BOTE calculation for what it would take to reach this figure with Starlink v2:
Starlink v2 mini has a solar array area of about 100 m^2, v2 is expected to be about 1.5x as heavy, I'll assume it will have 1.5x the panels as well. Assuming 300 W/m^2 and panels illuminated 50% of the time, that's 22.5 kW per satellite. To reach this would require 44k Starlink v2 satellites. That's around SpaceX's ultimate goal, but I don't think it's too likely to be reached by 2030.
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