One year after AGI is built, what will be the interest rate (%) in the United States?

10kṀ4927

2040

9.69

expected

ALL

Criteria for Resolution:

1. AGI Determination: The point in time when AGI is built will be determined by the resolution of the market "AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]” (https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708?r=SWhvcktlbmRpdWtob3Y).

2. Interest Rate: The interest rate to be measured is the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note. This rate is a common market-determined indicator of long-term interest rates in the US.

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This is very hard to predict. It's probably a massive deflationary pressure, but it probably would also motivate the US to massively expand the supply of money.

bought Ṁ7 YES

@RemNi I would expected it to be deflationary in the way steam engines were deflationary, i.e. not at all

@Adam You might be right. I think when it comes to consumption goods though, things get weird after AGI. Why buy a desk chair this year if in 2 years time you can get one that's been designed by a superintelligence? Maybe consumer behaviour just becomes less economically relevant after a few years.