This will be the next country to join the United Nations as a member state (Not an observer). If multiple countries join at the exact same time, I will resolve {1/n, …} Jul 2, 8:57am: Also, if there isn’t a new member by 2030, it will resolve to “no new members.”
Aug 16, 8:21am: If a country leaves and rejoins, that counts too.
Sep 12, 8:41pm: “None” will be chosen instead of “no new members” as nobody has bet on that option. Please ignore that option.
Sep 13, 11:10am: “None” has been removed as a feature. “No new members” will be chosen again.
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Current UN Decolonization List (As of 2025)
There are currently 17 territories on the UN list. Greenland is absent, but its independence movement remains active.
@GazDownright Not sure I quite understand the issue you’re experiencing, can you elaborate?
Is it about the slippage? If so, I can add some subsidy.
@bagelfan I couldn't bet on the 0% options; clicking the Yes/No options of each would crash the interface. It works now though, so seemed to have been temporary. Apologies for not providing more details sooner.
@GazDownright for some reason I was able to bet them so I pushed up quite a few I think are not impossible. The issue you face is definitely real though, I've encountered it a lot in the past
@GazDownright i'm pretty sure this is now fixed, so i'm resolving it in the mod queue. at least, i was able to bet in the 0% option i tried. and fwiw if this bug happens again, there isn't anything the mods can do about it—you'd have to post it as a bug in the discord
I'm not sure if this is actually fixed; it works now on this market but the issue comes up in other markets like https://manifold.markets/AndrewKeen/how-many-answers-will-this-question.
Ian is aware of it now so hopefully it's fully fixed soon.