Background Nicolás Maduro has been the President of Venezuela since 2013, maintaining power through elections that have been widely criticized as fraudulent by international observers. The 2024 presidential election has been particularly contentious, with the National Electoral Council (CNE) declaring Maduro the winner despite widespread allegations of electoral fraud and criticism from international monitors and organizations.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Nicolás Maduro holds the office of President of Venezuela on January 1, 2026. The market will resolve NO if:

• Maduro is removed from office

• Resigns

• Is otherwise not serving as President on January 1, 2026

If there is a disputed situation where multiple people claim to be the legitimate president, resolution will be based on who effectively controls the government and military apparatus of Venezuela (i.e. another Guaido-like situation would resolve NO unless Maduro is overthrown).