German Parliament (German Bundestag):

The next new party (i.e., not the re-entry of an existing party such as the FDP, nor the splitting of a party already represented in the Bundestag into newly named subgroups) to enter the Bundestag will be an Islamic party.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if the next political party to enter the German Bundestag (German federal parliament) that was not previously represented in the current legislative period is primarily based on Islamic principles or explicitly identifies as an Islamic party.

For the purposes of this market:

• "Entering the Bundestag" means gaining at least one seat in the Bundestag following a federal election or by-election.

• "New party" excludes:

  • Parties that were previously represented in the Bundestag but lost their seats (e.g., FDP, if applicable at the time).

  • Splinter groups formed from parties currently represented in the Bundestag.

• The determination of whether a party qualifies as an "Islamic party" will be based on the party's own public platform, mission statement, or widely accepted political analysis from credible, neutral German news outlets (e.g., Tagesschau, Spiegel, FAZ).

Resolution will be based on official results published by the Federal Returning Officer (Bundeswahlleiter) at https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/. If a new party enters the Bundestag and there is reasonable debate regarding its classification as an "Islamic party," the market will resolve based on the consensus of major, non-partisan German media outlets.

Background

The German Bundestag is the federal parliament of Germany. To enter the Bundestag, a party must generally clear a 5% threshold of the national vote, or win at least three direct mandates (constituency seats) via the "basic mandate clause" (Grundmandatsklausel).

As of April 2026, German politics has seen the emergence of several new political movements. Discussions regarding the role of religion in politics, including political Islam, are a subject of ongoing debate in German society. This market tracks whether an organization explicitly rooted in Islamic ideology becomes the next entity to achieve parliamentary representation, as defined by the criteria above.