If convicted, will Donald Trump receive a custodial sentence in the NY criminal case?
Jul 11

The state of New York brought a felony indictment against Donald Trump for falsifying business records. The case is scheduled to go to trial in April.

This market resolves YES if Trump receives any kind of custodial sentence, regardless of the length of that sentence or whether he actually serves it. Any custodial sentence related to this trial will count, including if he is given a custodial penalty for contempt of court before a verdict is rendered.

If the jury convicts but the sentence is non-custodial, the market resolves NO.

If Trump is acquitted or the case otherwise resolves without a conviction, the market resolves N/A.

NOTE: I will count home detention as a "custodial" sentence, if the terms confine him to his home. I will not count a sentence or other order that merely restricts his travel generally.

I may have to use my discretion to resolve this market and will not bet in it.

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