Will third party candidates combined receive more than 2% of the popular vote?
Plus
25
Ṁ13kDec 9
32%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Total of all 3rd party and write in votes in 2024 must be >2.00% to resolve yes. Any Vote that isn't for Harris or Trump is counted.
In 2020 it was 1.96%
in 2016 it was 6.05%
Resolves to data published by https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ once finalized. Will resolve 3 days after the final state has certified (mid December).
Back up resolution: https://www.congress.gov/
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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"once finalized" means the resolution will be pushed out until states certify their results, right?
@HillaryClinton polymarket is using Dec 17th, though it's not clear what fraction of write-ins (from county-level sources in some states) will have been incorporated by Dave Leip on that date.
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