Whoever gets the 3rd most seats wins.

Resolution criteria:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, following the next Canadian federal election, the Bloc Québécois secures the third-highest number of seats in the House of Commons. The determination will be based on the official seat counts published by Elections Canada. If the Bloc Québécois does not achieve this position, the market will resolve to "No."

Background:

The Bloc Québécois is a federal political party in Canada that primarily advocates for the interests of Quebec and promotes Quebec sovereignty. In the 2021 federal election, the Bloc secured 32 seats, positioning it as the third-largest party in the House of Commons. Recent political developments, including shifts in party leadership and changing voter sentiments, have influenced the party's standing. For instance, a December 2024 poll suggested the Bloc could secure 45 seats, potentially surpassing the Liberals and NDP. (newsminimalist.com) However, the political landscape remains dynamic, with various factors influencing party standings as the next election approaches.