Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announced at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December 9-10, 2025. The possible outcomes are:
Increase: The FOMC raises the target range for the federal funds rate.
No change: The FOMC maintains the current target range for the federal funds rate.
25 bps decrease: The FOMC lowers the target range by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points).
50+ bps decrease: The FOMC lowers the target range by 50 or more basis points (0.50 percentage points or more).
The official FOMC statement, typically released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the final day of the meeting, will serve as the primary source for resolution. The statement can be found on the Federal Reserve's website: (federalreserve.gov)
Considerations
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unusual whales reported on the result: https://x.com/i/status/1998830174461374733 first i've seen but prob even better sources
The 'background' section and everything after reflects the earlier market for the September Fed decision. Various things have changed since then, the reference to a potential 'September rate cut' is obviously from the past, etc.
Mostly this doesn't matter but the opening paragraph of the 'Background' section contains information that is definitely no longer correct.
@BorisBartlog I was lazy and duplicated the question with the AI feature. I'll just delete it. Background info is changing daily by now anyway.
I'm gonna lose mana like a dumbass because a month and a half ago I looked up via Google's Gemini how many more interest rate decision moments there would be in 2025 and it told me there was a November one, and left it at that. I returned to that chat and inquired further and then gave the dates as October, and then December, so I bet NO on December assuming there would be two more cuts in this year, October and November, and they'd probably cool off in December. lol, fuck you Gemini.