Resolution criteria
This market will resolve based on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision announced at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for December 9-10, 2025. The possible outcomes are:
Increase: The FOMC raises the target range for the federal funds rate.
No change: The FOMC maintains the current target range for the federal funds rate.
25 bps decrease: The FOMC lowers the target range by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage points).
50+ bps decrease: The FOMC lowers the target range by 50 or more basis points (0.50 percentage points or more).
The official FOMC statement, typically released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the final day of the meeting, will serve as the primary source for resolution. The statement can be found on the Federal Reserve's website: (federalreserve.gov)
Considerations
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The 'background' section and everything after reflects the earlier market for the September Fed decision. Various things have changed since then, the reference to a potential 'September rate cut' is obviously from the past, etc.
Mostly this doesn't matter but the opening paragraph of the 'Background' section contains information that is definitely no longer correct.
@BorisBartlog I was lazy and duplicated the question with the AI feature. I'll just delete it. Background info is changing daily by now anyway.
I'm gonna lose mana like a dumbass because a month and a half ago I looked up via Google's Gemini how many more interest rate decision moments there would be in 2025 and it told me there was a November one, and left it at that. I returned to that chat and inquired further and then gave the dates as October, and then December, so I bet NO on December assuming there would be two more cuts in this year, October and November, and they'd probably cool off in December. lol, fuck you Gemini.