Fed decisions in 2025

Ṁ1kṀ26k

resolved Dec 11

100%99.6%

Cut–Cut–Cut

0.0%

Cut-Pause-Cut

0.2%

Cut–Cut–Pause

0.0%

Cut–Pause–Pause

0.0%

Pause–Cut–Pause

0.0%

Pause–Cut–Cut

0.1%

Other

Rate Definition: Use the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
Meetings Covered (2025): Sep 16–17, Oct 28–29, Dec 9–10.
Per-meeting outcome:
Cut = new upper bound lower than just before the meeting;
Pause = unchanged;
Hike = higher.
Market outcome: Resolves to the three-meeting sequence (e.g., Cut–Pause–Cut). Any Hike or any sequence not listed resolves to Other.
Inter-meeting moves: Emergency/unscheduled changes are ignored.
Sources: FOMC post-meeting statement and policy rate pages:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
No December statement by Dec 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT → Other.