Rate Definition: Use the upper bound of the target federal funds range.

Meetings Covered (2025): Sep 16–17, Oct 28–29, Dec 9–10.

Per-meeting outcome:

Cut = new upper bound lower than just before the meeting;

Pause = unchanged;

Hike = higher.

Market outcome: Resolves to the three-meeting sequence (e.g., Cut–Pause–Cut). Any Hike or any sequence not listed resolves to Other.

Inter-meeting moves: Emergency/unscheduled changes are ignored.

Sources: FOMC post-meeting statement and policy rate pages:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

No December statement by Dec 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT → Other.