Will there be a day in 2024 with 1,000 questions created on Manifold?
13
79
Ṁ551Ṁ320
2025
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
As according to https://manifold.markets/stats. For reference, top day in 2023 was Nov 10th, with 930 new questions. Top day so far in 2024 was Jan 1st with 795.
Intentional market manipulation (creating lots of markets to make profit in this one) seems unlikely to be profitable, but could cause me to make a manual deduction in extreme cases. I.e if large YES holders have also created lots of markets (≥20) on a given day, I would cap the count at at 10 markets for those users.
I won't trade in this market, as I have allowed myself some subjective leeway beyond the official stats.
Get Ṁ200 play money
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