Will Stockeld Dreamery be a significant player in plantbased cheese in 2030?
3
322
90
2030
15%
chance

Stockeld Dreamery (https://www.stockeld.com) have pivoted from hard to soft vegan cheese, and are scaling up production and marketing.

Compared to where they are now, next to nothing, will I consider them a big player in their niche at the end of 2030?

I would have preferred to operationalize this in hard numbers, but fear not getting access to the statistics I want.

Current suggested hard conditions:

1) Are Stockeld still making some kind of vegan cheese?

2) Is the company's total global revenue more than $50 million in local currency equivalent

If they go bankrupt, this resolves NO.

If my best estimate of global revenue is less than $50M, this resolves NO.

If they get acquired, this resolves NO.

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predicts NO

@Mag Do you think the global revenue is at the right level to capture the question's essence? Would you suggest additions on YES/NO conditions? :)

predicts NO

@HenriThunberg I think $50M is a decent threshold for "significant at a global level" — If they sell cheeses for like $10 bucks per block thats 5million blocks which seems significant, but not insanely so. Personally I think it's very unlikely that any one brand goes global in the way that e.g. Beyond Meat has, but definitely could be wrong. I'd put it at 10-15% maybe

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