Will Stockeld Dreamery be a significant player in plantbased cheese in 2030?
closes 2030

Stockeld Dreamery (https://www.stockeld.com) have pivoted from hard to soft vegan cheese, and are scaling up production and marketing.

Compared to where they are now, next to nothing, will I consider them a big player in their niche at the end of 2030?

I would have preferred to operationalize this in hard numbers, but fear not getting access to the statistics I want.

Current suggested hard conditions:

1) Are Stockeld still making some kind of vegan cheese?

2) Is the company's total global revenue more than $50 million in local currency equivalent

If they go bankrupt, this resolves NO.

If my best estimate of global revenue is less than $50M, this resolves NO.

If they get acquired, this resolves NO.

Sort by:
HenriThunberg avatar
Henri Thunbergis predicting NO at 28%

@Mag Do you think the global revenue is at the right level to capture the question's essence? Would you suggest additions on YES/NO conditions? :)

Mag avatar
Magnus Hambletonis predicting NO at 28%

@HenriThunberg I think $50M is a decent threshold for "significant at a global level" — If they sell cheeses for like $10 bucks per block thats 5million blocks which seems significant, but not insanely so. Personally I think it's very unlikely that any one brand goes global in the way that e.g. Beyond Meat has, but definitely could be wrong. I'd put it at 10-15% maybe

Related markets

Will a hybrid cultivated and plant-based meat product be commercially available in the US by 2025?69%
Will someone successfully turn wood into a significant amount of human-digestible food by 2024?90%
Will I eat a lab-grown zebra steak by the end of 2028?35%
Will something at least as good as beau's ideal world have been achieved by 2100?61%
Will biotechnology be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?73%
R2-D2 by 2030?63%
Singularity by 2030?22%
Will consequential atomically precise manufacturing systems be developed before 2030?14%
Will Terraform Industries begin to commercialize in 2024?78%
When will cultured meat take up 10% of the total animal-based meat market of any country?2040
Where will Elon Musk be in 2030?
Will there be any significant technological developments after 2100?87%
Will Neuralink release a mass market commercial neural implant by 2030?22%
Will renewable energy be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?73%
Will any fund eclipse the size of the SoftBank Vision Fund by 2030?63%
Will running "prey substitute" robots, which carry meat substitutes for feeding wild predators, exist by 2050?29%
Will I be a centimillionaire by 2050?52%
Will Tesla be the most valuable US company by 2030?19%
Will the Musk Foundation deploy >$100M by 2030?99%
Will Nonlinear exist in 2030?15%