[Megamarket] 80,000 Hours podcast in 2024 prop bets
Basic
28
แน€4876
resolved Jan 21
Resolved
YES
โ‰ฅ35 episodes in 2024
Resolved
NO
Other host than Rob or Luisa
Resolved
NO
โ‰ฅ3 guests with Rethink Priorities as main employer at time of recording
Resolved
YES
21 days with no episode released
Resolved
NO
Episode with Sam Altman
Resolved
NO
Paid sponsorship featured in an episode
Resolved
YES
Episode length of โ‰ฅ4h00m
Resolved
NO
Episode with Zachary Robinson
Resolved
NO
โ‰ฅ3 guests with Open Philanthropy as main employer at time of recording
Resolved
NO
"Rationalussy" in the official transcript
Resolved
YES
Guest with Anthropic as main employer at time of recording
Resolved
NO
Pre-interview introduction mentions "Ukraine"
Resolved
NO
Guest with Manifold as main employer at time of recording
Resolved
YES
Episode that can be said to have forecasting as its main topic (in a broad sense, rather than e.g. AI timelines)
Resolved
NO
Episode with Holden Karnofsky
Resolved
NO
Episode with Will MacAskill
Resolved
NO
Guest with OpenAI as main employer at time of recording
Resolved
NO
Episode with @EliezerYudkowsky
Resolved
NO
Episode with Niel Bowerman (80k CEO)
Resolved
NO
Episode that can be said to have the US 2024 election as its main topic
  • After Hours episodes don't count.

  • Only concerns episodes released in 2024.

  • Things that have already happened before this market's creation are admitted.

  • Insider trading allowed

  • As per the official webpage feed (unlike RSS podcast feed) "Classic episode" reposts do not count

For dates, lengths, etc, I will go with whatever's stated on the official webpage.

For any proof, it would be great if you could provide link and timestamp, or transcript, where applicable, for confirmation.
I reserve the right to remove, N/A, and/or clarify descriptions, as I see fit.

I will not trade in this market, to be able to better rule on subjective judgments.

  • Update 2024-19-12 (PST): - South Asia (including India) is included in the market scope (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-17-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Total Episodes: 38 episodes in total, exceeding the minimum of 35.

    • Gender Ratio: 27 men vs 8 women, not meeting the required 40/60 ratio.

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38 episodes in total, more than 35
27 men vs 8 women, at my quick look, for sure won't pass 40/60.

I will let the rest resolve to NO in ~24h, unless anyone objects.
Thank you for the patience @Fion ๐Ÿ™Œ

@HenriThunberg can this resolve please?

@HenriThunberg does this include South Asia? Venki Ramakrishnan was born in India

https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/venki-ramakrishnan-ageing-life-extension/

@poppinfresh definitely :)

@RS fair enough. I think the general vibe of the episode is very x-risk, but the second half definitely addresses many aspects of forecasting in a broader sense.

reposted

End of year is approaching, presumably free money on the table here :))

I made a market which traders here might be interested in:

bought แน€1,000 YES

26 days have passed since #183 with Spencer Greenberg.

oh this is a nice idea for a market!

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