[Megamarket] 80,000 Hours podcast in 2024 prop bets
Mini
24
2.0k
2025
34%
≥35 episodes in 2024
49%
Other host than Rob or Luisa
54%
≥3 guests with Rethink Priorities as main employer at time of recording
6%
Episode with Sam Altman
27%
Paid sponsorship featured in an episode
43%
Episode length of ≥4h00m
67%
Episode with Zachary Robinson
66%
≥3 guests with Open Philanthropy as main employer at time of recording
12%
"Rationalussy" in the official transcript
86%
Guest with Anthropic as main employer at time of recording
44%
Pre-interview introduction mentions "Ukraine"
13%
Guest with Manifold as main employer at time of recording
71%
Episode that can be said to have forecasting as its main topic (in a broad sense, rather than e.g. AI timelines)
44%
Episode with Holden Karnofsky
41%
Episode with Will MacAskill
48%
Guest with OpenAI as main employer at time of recording
35%
Episode with @EliezerYudkowsky
41%
Episode with Niel Bowerman (80k CEO)
47%
Episode that can be said to have the US 2024 election as its main topic
50%
Guest born in Africa
  • After Hours episodes don't count.

  • Only concerns episodes released in 2024.

  • Things that have already happened before this market's creation are admitted.

  • Insider trading allowed

  • As per the official webpage feed (unlike RSS podcast feed) "Classic episode" reposts do not count

For dates, lengths, etc, I will go with whatever's stated on the official webpage.

For any proof, it would be great if you could provide link and timestamp, or transcript, where applicable, for confirmation.
I reserve the right to remove, N/A, and/or clarify descriptions, as I see fit.

I will not trade in this market, to be able to better rule on subjective judgments.

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I made a market which traders here might be interested in:

bought Ṁ1,000 Answer #07f9c12c5c8a YES

26 days have passed since #183 with Spencer Greenberg.

oh this is a nice idea for a market!