[Megamarket] 80,000 Hours podcast in 2024 prop bets
28
1.8kṀ4876
resolved Jan 21
Resolved
YES
≥35 episodes in 2024
Resolved
NO
Other host than Rob or Luisa
Resolved
NO
≥3 guests with Rethink Priorities as main employer at time of recording
Resolved
YES
21 days with no episode released
Resolved
NO
Episode with Sam Altman
Resolved
NO
Paid sponsorship featured in an episode
Resolved
YES
Episode length of ≥4h00m
Resolved
NO
Episode with Zachary Robinson
Resolved
NO
≥3 guests with Open Philanthropy as main employer at time of recording
Resolved
NO
"Rationalussy" in the official transcript
Resolved
YES
Guest with Anthropic as main employer at time of recording
Resolved
NO
Pre-interview introduction mentions "Ukraine"
Resolved
NO
Guest with Manifold as main employer at time of recording
Resolved
YES
Episode that can be said to have forecasting as its main topic (in a broad sense, rather than e.g. AI timelines)
Resolved
NO
Episode with Holden Karnofsky
Resolved
NO
Episode with Will MacAskill
Resolved
NO
Guest with OpenAI as main employer at time of recording
Resolved
NO
Episode with @EliezerYudkowsky
Resolved
NO
Episode with Niel Bowerman (80k CEO)
Resolved
NO
Episode that can be said to have the US 2024 election as its main topic
  • After Hours episodes don't count.

  • Only concerns episodes released in 2024.

  • Things that have already happened before this market's creation are admitted.

  • Insider trading allowed

  • As per the official webpage feed (unlike RSS podcast feed) "Classic episode" reposts do not count

For dates, lengths, etc, I will go with whatever's stated on the official webpage.

For any proof, it would be great if you could provide link and timestamp, or transcript, where applicable, for confirmation.
I reserve the right to remove, N/A, and/or clarify descriptions, as I see fit.

I will not trade in this market, to be able to better rule on subjective judgments.

  • Update 2024-19-12 (PST): - South Asia (including India) is included in the market scope (AI summary of creator comment)

  • Update 2025-17-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Total Episodes: 38 episodes in total, exceeding the minimum of 35.

    • Gender Ratio: 27 men vs 8 women, not meeting the required 40/60 ratio.

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