[Megamarket] 80,000 Hours podcast in 2024 prop bets
Basic
28
Ṁ4776
Jan 1
83%
≥35 episodes in 2024
11%
Other host than Rob or Luisa
46%
≥3 guests with Rethink Priorities as main employer at time of recording
6%
Episode with Sam Altman
12%
Paid sponsorship featured in an episode
9%
Episode with Zachary Robinson
17%
≥3 guests with Open Philanthropy as main employer at time of recording
11%
"Rationalussy" in the official transcript
35%
Pre-interview introduction mentions "Ukraine"
12%
Guest with Manifold as main employer at time of recording
10%
Episode with Holden Karnofsky
7%
Episode with Will MacAskill
35%
Guest with OpenAI as main employer at time of recording
7%
Episode with @EliezerYudkowsky
10%
Episode with Niel Bowerman (80k CEO)
9%
Episode that can be said to have the US 2024 election as its main topic
15%
Guest born in Africa
9%
Guest gender ratio within 40-60% at EOY
15%
A cooking recipe is shared on the show (ingredients + at least some instruction on how to do it)
31%
Someone confuses Boromir, High Warden of the White Tower, with Jamie Lannister

  • After Hours episodes don't count.

  • Only concerns episodes released in 2024.

  • Things that have already happened before this market's creation are admitted.

  • Insider trading allowed

  • As per the official webpage feed (unlike RSS podcast feed) "Classic episode" reposts do not count

For dates, lengths, etc, I will go with whatever's stated on the official webpage.

For any proof, it would be great if you could provide link and timestamp, or transcript, where applicable, for confirmation.
I reserve the right to remove, N/A, and/or clarify descriptions, as I see fit.

I will not trade in this market, to be able to better rule on subjective judgments.

  • Update 2024-19-12 (PST): - South Asia (including India) is included in the market scope (AI summary of creator comment)

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@HenriThunberg does this include South Asia? Venki Ramakrishnan was born in India

https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/venki-ramakrishnan-ageing-life-extension/

@poppinfresh definitely :)

bought Ṁ175 YES

@HenriThunberg Episode #197

https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/nick-joseph-anthropic-safety-approach-responsible-scaling/

bought Ṁ325 YES

@HenriThunberg Episode #200

https://80000hours.org/podcast/episodes/ezra-karger-forecasting-existential-risks/

@RS fair enough. I think the general vibe of the episode is very x-risk, but the second half definitely addresses many aspects of forecasting in a broader sense.

reposted

End of year is approaching, presumably free money on the table here :))

I made a market which traders here might be interested in:

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

26 days have passed since #183 with Spencer Greenberg.

oh this is a nice idea for a market!

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