Will the UN/international community create something equivalent to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) but for Artificial Intelligence? This has been suggested by people like Rishi Sunak, Eric Schmidt, Mustafa Suleyman and others.
Will resolve YES if, and only if:
First official meeting needs to have been held before closing date (meetings discussing how to set it up before it's official do not count).
Needs to be at least sanctioned by the UN in some way, preferably created within the UN structure.
"The United Nations endorsed the creation of the IPCC later that year." is apparently how it worked for the IPCC, according to Wikipedia.
Needs to be specifically aimed at Artificial Intelligence.
Alternative phrasings like "Frontier models", "Pivotal technology", etc, are alright, as long as it's clear from statements that AI is the main issue.
An organization with broader mandate, such as regulating big tech with AI merely as a subcommittee, would not resolve to YES.
Will resolve YES immediately if the above happens. Will resolve NO if the above hasn't happened before Jan 1st 2030.
For some time (before too many traders in the market) I would be happy to get suggestions on how to improve the above criteria.
I will never trade in this market.
Shorter timeline in this duplicate market:
The UN AI advisory body in their latest interim report don't seem to consider themselves an IPCC equivalent just yet. But they seem a very likely candidate, and to be honest I'm having trouble making a distinction on what the difference would be?
To be honest I had completely forgot about them, and feel open to just N/Aing this question, as a transition to something IPCC-like is likely and might happen so fluidly that it's hard to say when the change occurred. On the other hand, I also feel open to leaving it open until more people/journalists/themselves are making the comparison (which doesn't seem to be the case at all for now).
Thoughts welcome!
