All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag Forbes - 2024 AI Predictions.
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
Description of this prediction from the article:
Microsoft and OpenAI are closely allied. Microsoft has poured over $10 billion into OpenAI to date. OpenAI’s models power key Microsoft products like Bing, GitHub Copilot and Office 365 Copilot. When OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was unexpectedly fired by the board last month, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella played an instrumental role in getting him reinstated.
Yet Microsoft and OpenAI are distinct organizations, with distinct ambitions and distinct long-term visions for the future of AI. The alliance has so far worked well for both groups, but it is a marriage of convenience. The two organizations are far from perfectly aligned.
Next year, we predict that cracks will begin to appear in the partnership between these two giants. Indeed, hints of future friction have already begun to surface.
As OpenAI looks to aggressively ramp up its enterprise business, it will find itself more and more often competing directly with Microsoft for customers. For its part, Microsoft has plenty of reasons to diversify beyond OpenAI as a supplier of cutting-edge AI models. Microsoft recently announced a deal to partner with OpenAI rival Cohere, for instance. Faced with the exorbitant costs of running OpenAI’s models at scale, Microsoft has also invested in internal AI research efforts on smaller language models like Phi-2.
Bigger picture, as AI becomes ever more powerful, important questions about AI safety, risk, regulation and public accountability will take center stage. The stakes will be high. Given their differing cultures, values and histories, it seems inevitable that the two organizations will diverge in their philosophies and approaches to these issues.
With a $2.7 trillion market capitalization, Microsoft is the second-largest company in the world. Yet the ambitions of OpenAI and its charismatic leader Sam Altman may be even more far-reaching. These two organizations serve each other well today. But don’t expect that to last forever.