https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/14/gaza-americans-rafah-border/
Talks disolved. Egypt wanted to send aid with the retrieval of an estimated 600 Palestinian-Americans in Gaza. They were planning within a short window but Israel axed it to not allow aid.
If ANY of these people are allowed to leave (meaning 1 or more) by October 31st, this market resolves as YES.
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@Emanuele98 lol I was thinking about that earlier. Would have been insane if this happened a little bit sooner.
Call me a pessimist
https://manifold.markets/Haws/will-any-palestinianamerican-be-all-eed7325bed36?r=SGF3cw
https://time.com/6324766/rafah-border-crossing-gaza-egypt-israel/
No timeline available for the opening of the border to remove Americans from Gaza.
It's important to note that other passport holders from other countries (Canada, Germany, Etc) are also trapped.
Keep in mind this question only pertains to the Americans, but I think they are all in a "similar" situation now that talks of pulling Americans out has been shaky.
Here is a family that has been trying to get out (From Ohio): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avPoui1RQ_0
@Haws "It remains unclear which regional actor is behind the closed borders, according to reports by the Associated Press."
Do you think it's Egypt or Hamas? Those are the two parties which control the borders. The truck is now coming through.
My guess is that it's Hamas. Israel and Egypt were trying to get them released. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/11/politics/us-talks-safe-passage-gaza/index.html. It's certainly in Israel's interests; Egypt is the party that needs to be convinced. I think it's in Egypt's interests. But Hamas might have a veto.
More trucks are entering Gaza from Egypt:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/second-aid-convoy-egypts-rafah-soon-en-route-gaza-sources-2023-10-22/
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@manifoldaccount Hamas has every incentive to keep the Palestinian-Americans in Gaza as de facto hostages/human shields to have leverage over the US.
@manifoldaccount I'm thinking that both Israel and Hamas are using these Americans and foreign nationals as bargaining pieces. This is only my opinion though, who really knows.
@Haws 100%, compare with Mosul, Grozny, Rabaa Massacre, Syrian Civil War, or anything else remotely comparable ... roof knocking
Islamism delanda est
@manifoldaccount Hey buddy, I just make markets. I'm not looking to destroy Islam, or Judaism or anything.
I think a lot of people would not use "Cuck" to describe bibi, but u have your right to for sure.
@Haws Unfortunately, he also cucks to the settlers and Haredim (see the judicial reform nonsense), which is (maybe) why you don't think he's a cuck.
A centrist government led by Gantz (and Lapid) that did good stuff like reverse settlements and transfer stuff from area C to area B would have done much more, with more support from the West.
@Haws I don't want to destroy Islam (Assad is Muslim), wanting to destroy violent ISLAMISM like MB/Hamas/Qaeda/ISIS is another matter.
@MaybeNotDepends Those are Israeli-Americans, leaving Israel by Cyprus. This question is specifically the Americans trapped in Gaza.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsJPyulBJkQ
"A Palestinian Embassy representative told NBC News that officials at the Rafah crossing said “foreign national Palestinians” will be able to cross the border starting 9 a.m. local time."
The translator's wife and children still don’t have U.S. passports, and he has received no official word to indicate that the border will actually be opening. And even if it is, he said, it is “highly risky” to travel amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza strip.
“There are no guarantees. There’s not like a safe corridor offered to foreign nationals when they leave. It’s every man for himself,” said Shawa
Nothing is guaranteed, let's see how this window plays out
Article from October 21st
"US officials had advised Gaza’s Palestinian American dual citizens — who number between 500 and 600 — to move closer to the crossing for possible safe passage into Egypt."
"On October 21, US officials said they had received information that the crossing could be opened to allow dual citizens to leave — as the first aid trucks from Egypt entered Gaza."
Article from October 24
From the article, talking about US citizens in Gaza:
"To date, at least, Hamas has blocked them from leaving, showing once again its total disregard for civilians of any kind who are stuck in Gaza," Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a televised interview Sunday.
On Monday, State Department spokesman Matthew Miller clarified that the U.S. now assessed that after weeks of negotiations with Egypt and Israel aimed at securing safe passage for the Americans, only Hamas stood in the way.
"We do believe that Egypt is ready to process American citizens if they can make it to Egyptian authorities. Hamas just has to stop blocking their exit," Miller said.