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Wait so was it confirmed what was actually behind it?

@TheAllMemeingEye A mix of renewable energy leading to low grid inertia and maybe some low-frequency oscillations (no idea to what proportions exactly). But the question in the title is negated based on the resolution criteria and also titled 'fake news' on Wikipedia, so it makes sense to resolve it.

@TheAllMemeingEye if you are interested in the cause check my market, I post updates when I read something but investigation is super slow

https://manifold.markets/Choms/spains-power-outage-cause-bingo

@Choms thanks 🙏

You know, you actually get different answers if you ask Grok in English than Spanish, in Spanish it actually picks the official response from the weather service ;)

@Choms I tested it and it says that is not yet sure in both versions (about the atmospheric phenomenon).

@HannesLynchburg yea, it now quotes AEMT, the first time I asked (did English first) it didn't, just quoted newspapers, probably got indexed after querying it for the Spanish version

I made a market to collect multiple hypotheses:

https://manifold.markets/LudwigBald/what-caused-the-spanish-power-black?r=THVkd2lnQmFsZA

@LudwigBald I made a bingo too but mine resolves to official gov sources https://manifold.markets/Choms/spains-power-outage-cause-bingo?r=Q2hvbXM

Hmm, maybe to make the question more specific, I will ask if it was more than 33 percent responsible for the blackout. Any other suggestions? @traders

Thanks for being honest about your epistemic standards.

@WilliamGunn ?

@HannesLynchburg https://manifold.markets/WilliamGunn/is-it-good-practice-to-ask-a-llm-fo?r=V2lsbGlhbUd1bm4

@WilliamGunn looking pretty lonely on the yes side of the above poll, @HannesLynchburg 😉

@WilliamGunn Your poll is stupid. Grok doesn't hallucinate sources, as you maybe should know.

Do you plan on checking the sources cited by the LLM?

@WilliamGunn I will not read all ~25 linked articles

@HannesLynchburg will you ask Grok if a atmospheric anomaly caused the outage or will you ask what caused the outage?

@AlexanderTheGreater The question in the title. Plus some neutral demand to make a decision.