You know, you actually get different answers if you ask Grok in English than Spanish, in Spanish it actually picks the official response from the weather service ;)

@Choms I tested it and it says that is not yet sure in both versions (about the atmospheric phenomenon).

@HannesLynchburg yea, it now quotes AEMT, the first time I asked (did English first) it didn't, just quoted newspapers, probably got indexed after querying it for the Spanish version

I made a market to collect multiple hypotheses:

https://manifold.markets/LudwigBald/what-caused-the-spanish-power-black?r=THVkd2lnQmFsZA

@LudwigBald I made a bingo too but mine resolves to official gov sources https://manifold.markets/Choms/spains-power-outage-cause-bingo?r=Q2hvbXM

Hmm, maybe to make the question more specific, I will ask if it was more than 33 percent responsible for the blackout. Any other suggestions? @traders

Thanks for being honest about your epistemic standards.

@WilliamGunn ?

@HannesLynchburg https://manifold.markets/WilliamGunn/is-it-good-practice-to-ask-a-llm-fo?r=V2lsbGlhbUd1bm4

@WilliamGunn looking pretty lonely on the yes side of the above poll, @HannesLynchburg 😉

@WilliamGunn Your poll is stupid. Grok doesn't hallucinate sources, as you maybe should know.

Do you plan on checking the sources cited by the LLM?

@WilliamGunn I will not read all ~25 linked articles

@HannesLynchburg will you ask Grok if a atmospheric anomaly caused the outage or will you ask what caused the outage?

@AlexanderTheGreater The question in the title. Plus some neutral demand to make a decision.