Creator note: Feel free to add options, resolves according to OFFICIAL Spanish sources, each option resolves independently whenever is announced or ruled out.

Resolution criteria:

Each option will resolve as follows:

• "It's declared a cyber attack": Resolves "Yes" if Spanish authorities officially declare that the power outage was caused by a cyber attack.

• "Cyber attack & Russia-funded": Resolves "Yes" if the cyber attack is officially attributed to a group funded by Russia.

• "Cyber attack & USA-funded": Resolves "Yes" if the cyber attack is officially attributed to a group funded by the USA.

• "Cyber attack & independent group": Resolves "Yes" if the cyber attack is officially attributed to an independent group with no state funding.

• "Intern plugged wrong cable": Resolves "Yes" if the outage is officially attributed to human error, such as an intern misconnecting cables.

• "Never found root cause": Resolves "Yes" if, after a reasonable period (e.g., six months), no official cause for the outage is determined.

• "Bad weather": Resolves "Yes" if the outage is officially attributed to adverse weather conditions.

• "Accidental infrastructure damage (fallen tower, wildlife, etc)": Resolves "Yes" if the outage is officially attributed to unintentional physical damage to infrastructure, such as a fallen tower or wildlife interference.

• "Intended infrastructure damage (cable cut, bomb, etc)": Resolves "Yes" if the outage is officially attributed to deliberate physical damage to infrastructure, such as sabotage.

If multiple causes are officially identified, each relevant option will resolve "Yes." If none of the listed causes are officially identified, all options will resolve "No."

Background:

On April 28, 2025, Spain and Portugal experienced a massive power outage that disrupted essential services across the Iberian Peninsula. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez reported a sudden loss of 15 gigawatts—about 60% of Spain's demand—in just five seconds. By April 29, 2025, power was nearly fully restored, but the exact cause remained unidentified. Authorities ruled out cyberattacks and meteorological causes, and investigations are ongoing. (apnews.com)

Considerations:

Given the unprecedented nature of the outage and the ongoing investigations, traders should monitor official statements from Spanish authorities for updates on the cause. Historical incidents, such as the 2024 cyberattack on Orange Spain due to weak passwords, highlight the potential for cyber vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure. (theregister.com)

Spain and Portugal Investigate Massive Power Outage:

• Spain, Portugal hunt for cause of power outage as electricity returns

• Última hora del apagón, en directo | Red Eléctrica descarta de forma preliminar que el apagón se debiese a un incidente de ciberseguridad

• Spain and Portugal's power is almost fully restored, but the huge blackout's cause remains a mystery