Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2030 (00:00 UTC), Spain's government officially closes all standard civilian land border crossings with Morocco (located in the enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla) "indefinitely".

To satisfy this condition, the closure must meet at least one of the following criteria:

• Official Announcement: The Spanish Ministry of the Interior, the Office of the Prime Minister, or an official publication in the Spanish State Gazette (Boletín Oficial del Estado - BOE) explicitly decrees an "indefinite" closure (cierre indefinido) of the land borders in both Ceuta (Tarajal) and Melilla (Beni Enzar) to standard passenger, civilian vehicle, or pedestrian transit.

• De Facto Continuous Closure: All designated civilian land border crossings in both Ceuta and Melilla are completely closed to standard passenger and pedestrian transit for a continuous period of at least 180 days, without a public, official reopening date scheduled by the Spanish government during that period.

Edge Cases and Clarifications:

• Temporary Closures: Short-term security shutdowns, temporary suspensions during active border emergencies, or daily/nightly scheduled closures do not trigger a YES unless they exceed 180 consecutive days or are officially declared "indefinite."

• Partial Closures: Closures affecting only specific types of traffic (such as commercial cargo, non-EU passport holders, or cross-border workers) do not count. The land borders must be closed to all standard passenger, civilian vehicle, or pedestrian transit.

• Unilateral Actions: If Morocco unilaterally shuts down its side of the border while Spain officially keeps its crossings open, this does not resolve to YES unless Spain also formally decrees an indefinite closure of its side.

• Source of Truth: Official announcements from the Spanish Government, the official state gazette (BOE), or reports from major international and Spanish news outlets (e.g., El País, RTVE, Reuters).

Background

Spain and Morocco share the European Union's only land borders on the African continent, situated around the Spanish autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla. These borders are a major flashpoint for irregular migration, as highlighted by significant border crossings in May 2021 and a severe border crisis in July–August 2026.

The land borders were previously closed completely for over two years between March 2020 and May 2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and diplomatic tensions. Ongoing migration pressures have prompted calls from Spanish opposition and right-wing political figures to permanently seal or militarize the enclaves. This market tracks whether the Spanish government will permanently or indefinitely close these crossings prior to 2030.

This description was generated by AI.