Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point within 10 years from the date of this market's creation (on or before April 4, 2036), official data published by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India, reports that India's crude oil import dependency has fallen below 50% of its total crude oil requirements.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No" after April 4, 2036.

Data from the PPAC can be found at their official website: https://www.ppac.gov.in/.

Background

India's dependency on imported crude oil has remained consistently high, hovering around 88% in recent years. This reliance is primarily driven by rapidly growing domestic energy demand coupled with relatively stagnant domestic crude oil production.

While the Indian government has initiated various policies to boost domestic exploration and production—such as the Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP) and the Discovered Small Field (DSF) policy—and has promoted alternative fuels like ethanol blending, electric vehicles, and green hydrogen, these measures have yet to significantly reduce the overall percentage of crude oil import dependence. Previous government targets aimed at reducing this dependency have historically not been met due to the strong growth in energy consumption across transport, industrial, and petrochemical sectors.

This description was generated by AI.