MANIFOLD
How many popes until AGI?
25
Ṁ250Ṁ1.2k
2050
1.8 popes
expected
1%
0
67%
1
22%
2
2%
3
2%
4
1.3%
5
1.3%
6 - 7
1.3%
8 - 10
1.5%
Above 10

Resolves to the number of people who have been pope between today (April 23, 2025) and the exact date this Metaculus question resolves to. Pope Francis doesn't count.

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reposted

yes yes very coolfold

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