Conditional on AGI, will the S&P500 close above 1 million by 2032?
Basic
6
Ṁ211
2033
14%
chance

There are three options for resolution of this market:

(1) If before market close this Metaculus question resolves to date before Dec. 31, 2032 (i.e., AGI is achieved) AND the S&P500 closes above 1 million at least one time, this market resolves YES. The order of these two events does not matter, provided they both occur by Dec. 31, 2032.

(2) If before market close the Metaculus question resolves to date before Dec. 31, 2032 but the S&P500 does not close above 1 million at least once, this market resolves NO.

(3) If the Metaculus question does not resolve before Dec. 31, 2032, this question resolves N/A.

Note that as of market creation, 2032 is the median prediction for the date of resolution of the Metaculus market

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

0% chance but not worth tying up funds for that long.

Just noting that the SP500 is not denominated in dollars

@Radicalia Fixed, thanks.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules