Conditional on AGI, will the S&P500 close above 1 million by 2032?
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There are three options for resolution of this market:
(1) If before market close this Metaculus question resolves to date before Dec. 31, 2032 (i.e., AGI is achieved) AND the S&P500 closes above 1 million at least one time, this market resolves YES. The order of these two events does not matter, provided they both occur by Dec. 31, 2032.
(2) If before market close the Metaculus question resolves to date before Dec. 31, 2032 but the S&P500 does not close above 1 million at least once, this market resolves NO.
(3) If the Metaculus question does not resolve before Dec. 31, 2032, this question resolves N/A.
Note that as of market creation, 2032 is the median prediction for the date of resolution of the Metaculus market
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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