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MANIFOLD
Will Cyprus join the Schengen Area by December 31, 2026?
5
Ṁ100Ṁ197
Dec 31
48%
chance

Resolves YES if, on or before 31 December 2026, the Council of the European Union formally adopts a decision lifting checks at internal borders with the Republic of Cyprus, AND that decision takes legal effect (i.e., internal border controls are operationally abolished) on or before 31 December 2026.

Resolves YES for partial accession (e.g., air and sea borders only, mirroring the Bulgaria/Romania March 2024 precedent) provided the Council Decision is formally adopted and enters into force within 2026.

Resolves NO if:

- No Council Decision is adopted in 2026

- A Decision is adopted in 2026 but entry into force is scheduled for 2027 or later

- Accession is formally rejected, postponed, or withdrawn

Primary sources for resolution:

- Council of the EU press releases (consilium.europa.eu)

- Official Journal of the EU / EUR-Lex (eur-lex.europa.eu)

- Cyprus Government Press and Information Office (pio.gov.cy)

Background: Cyprus is one of the last EU member states outside Schengen. President Nikos Christodoulides publicly committed to 2026 accession, with technical readiness targeted for end of 2025. Final step requires unanimous approval by all 29 current Schengen member states in the JHA Council.

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