Which deck will win the Manifold MTG tournament?

Gustavo Mafra

resolved May 22

Stealthy Subterfuge

Gustavo Mafra

Chosen

69%

Balancing Act

10%

Spellweaver

Storm of Blades

On the Hunt

Blossoming Growth

Strength in Numbers

1.6%

Ignite the Forge

1.5%

Angelic Accountants

0.6%

Aerial Domination

0.6%

Cold-Blooded Killers

0.6%

Goblins Everywhere!

0.6%

Grave Matters

0.6%

Keep the Peace

0.6%

Large and in Charge

0.6%

Resolves to the deck that the champion uses in the final match

Magic: The Gathering

February MTG tournament

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	Wobbles	Ṁ67
2	journcy	Ṁ26
3	Odoacre	Ṁ20
4	Conflux	Ṁ11

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Isaac

Made an alternative operationalization of "what's the best deck" that will hopefully be less subject to random variance.

(Of course this also takes into account "what do people most like to play".)

Isaacbought Ṁ1 of Strength in Numbers

Also this one:

journcy bought Ṁ20 Stealthy Subterfuge from 65% to 69%

Wobbles bought Ṁ100 Stealthy Subterfuge from 36% to 65%

Conflux sold Ṁ7 Stealthy Subterfuge from 39% to 36%

Conflux bought Ṁ10 Stealthy Subterfuge from 35% to 39%

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ20 Stealthy Subterfuge from 24% to 35%

Marty Dettmann sold Ṁ3 Storm of Blades from 12% to 9%

Marty Dettmann sold Ṁ20 Storm of Blades from 24% to 12%

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ5 Storm of Blades from 21% to 24%

Gustavo Mafra bought Ṁ1 Blossoming Growth at 4%

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ1 Blossoming Growth from 3% to 4%

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ1 Ignite the Forge from 2% to 3%

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ2 Spellweaver from 8% to 10%

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ2 Blossoming Growth from 1.6% to 3%

Tyler Coleman bought Ṁ20 Balancing Act from 10% to 23%

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ1 Ignite the Forge from 2% to 3%

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ5 Storm of Blades from 23% to 26%

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ5 Spellweaver from 6% to 10%

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ5 Spellweaver from 2% to 6%

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ20 Storm of Blades from 10% to 25%

Marty Dettmann sold Ṁ11 On the Hunt from 20% to 11%

Marty Dettmann sold Ṁ5 On the Hunt from 24% to 20%

prigoryan bought Ṁ2 Balancing Act from 10% to 12%

Gustavo Mafra bought Ṁ1 Balancing Act at 10%

Gustavo Mafra bought Ṁ3 Strength in Numbers from 3% to 5%

Gustavo Mafra bought Ṁ6 Balancing Act from 5% to 10%

journcy bought Ṁ20 On the Hunt from 11% to 26%

journcy bought Ṁ30 Stealthy Subterfuge from 18% to 41%

prigoryan bought Ṁ1 Balancing Act from 7% to 8%

prigoryan bought Ṁ1 Stealthy Subterfuge from 18% to 19%

prigoryan bought Ṁ1 Storm of Blades from 16% to 17%

prigoryan bought Ṁ1 Storm of Blades from 15% to 16%

prigoryan bought Ṁ1 Ignite the Forge from 4% to 5%

prigoryan bought Ṁ1 Spellweaver from 4% to 5%

prigoryan bought Ṁ1 Strength in Numbers from 4% to 5%

Isaac bought Ṁ1 Angelic Accountants from 3% to 4%

Isaac bought Ṁ1 Aerial Domination from 3% to 4%

Isaac bought Ṁ1 Cold-Blooded Killers from 3% to 4%

Isaac bought Ṁ1 Ignite the Forge from 3% to 4%

Isaac bought Ṁ1 Goblins Everywhere! from 3% to 4%

Isaac bought Ṁ1 Grave Matters from 3% to 4%

Isaac bought Ṁ1 Spellweaver from 3% to 4%

Isaac bought Ṁ1 Keep the Peace from 3% to 4%

Isaac bought Ṁ1 Large and in Charge from 3% to 4%

Isaac bought Ṁ1 Strength in Numbers from 3% to 4%

Gustavo Mafra bought Ṁ1 Balancing Act from 7% to 9%

Conflux bought Ṁ5 Stealthy Subterfuge from 16% to 21%

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ5 On the Hunt from 15% to 20%

Marty Dettmann bought Ṁ5 Storm of Blades from 15% to 21%

Odoacre bought Ṁ2 Balancing Act from 6% to 9%

Odoacre bought Ṁ2 Blossoming Growth from 4% to 7%

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Will I come out net positive as a market creator on the Manifold MTG tournament?99%

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Will the Magic: The Gathering reserved list ever be removed or broken?43%

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Related markets

Isaac

Which deck will win the most matches in the Manifold MTG tournament?

Isaac

Which deck will have the highest win rate in the Manifold MTG tournament?

Isaac

Which deck will win the fewest matches in the Manifold MTG tournament?

Isaac

Will I come out net positive as a market creator on the Manifold MTG tournament?99%

Isaac

Will anyone be discovered to have cheated in the Manifold MTG tournament?5%

Isaac

Will anyone end the Manifold MTG Tournament with at least M$10,000 in profit?4%

Isaac

At the end of the Manifold MTG tournament, will I have the highest total profit on the leaderboard?4%

Isaac

If I run another Manifold MTG tournament, will Zvi enter?29%

Isaac

At the end of the Manifold MTG tournament, will Wobbles have the highest total profit on the leaderboard?2%

Isaac

Will anyone be disqualified from a Magic tournament for betting on it on Manifold by the end of 2023?10%

harfe

Will black win Lorxus' Manifold plays Go?59%

Conflux

Will I get Mythic on MTG Arena in 2023? (I just learned about its deceitful & exploitable secret ranking system, but might still try normally.)48%

Wobbles

Will @IsaacKing misresolve a MTG market?26%

Xavier Baton

When will MTG will start becoming less of a collectible assets ?2045

Isaac

Will the Magic: The Gathering reserved list ever be removed or broken?43%

Isaac

Will Wobbles be an MTG judge by the end of June?15%

Isaac

Will anybody cast a Panglacial Wurm in a game of Magic against me by the end of May?66%