Resolves at close date to YES if the mainstream belief among US citizens is that 9/11 was an inside job, at least partially planned and executed by high officers inside the US government. If it continues to be a fringe conspiracy theory, resolves to NO.
Whoever resolves this market should take these into account:
- Polls that are not obviously biased crossing the 50% threshold
- Official statements from the government
- Mainstream media, books, Wikipedia if that exists, citing inside-job as the most likely theory
- General perceived sentiment
These are all proxies for "if we average the subjective belief of all US citizens, P(inside job) > 50%"
1,000If you watch the doc. 9/11 The New Pearl Harbor, you can already conclude it was some kind of inside job. But that does not mean it was only an inside job. Christopher Bollyn shows it was also a Zionist / Mossad job as well.
@NathanNguyen Not a particular one since we don't know what will be the realiable polls at 2100. Whoever resolves this market should take these into account:
- Polls that are not obviously biased crossing the 50% threshold
- Official statements from the government
- Mainstream media, books, Wikipedia if that exists, citing inside-job as the most likely theory
- General perceived sentiment
These are all proxies for "if we average the subjective belief of all US citizens, P(inside job) > 50%"
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
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Why use play money?Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?