Resolves at close date to YES if the mainstream belief among US citizens is that 9/11 was an inside job, at least partially planned and executed by high officers inside the US government. If it continues to be a fringe conspiracy theory, resolves to NO.
Whoever resolves this market should take these into account:
- Polls that are not obviously biased crossing the 50% threshold
- Official statements from the government
- Mainstream media, books, Wikipedia if that exists, citing inside-job as the most likely theory
- General perceived sentiment
These are all proxies for "if we average the subjective belief of all US citizens, P(inside job) > 50%"
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@NathanNguyen Not a particular one since we don't know what will be the realiable polls at 2100. Whoever resolves this market should take these into account:
- Polls that are not obviously biased crossing the 50% threshold
- Official statements from the government
- Mainstream media, books, Wikipedia if that exists, citing inside-job as the most likely theory
- General perceived sentiment
These are all proxies for "if we average the subjective belief of all US citizens, P(inside job) > 50%"