Will Biden have pardoned more people than Trump (2017-2021)?
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resolved Dec 4
Resolved
YES

Trump issued 144 pardons on his first term.

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will resolve based on Federal marijuana pardons issued by Biden compared to Trump's 144 pardons.

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Apologies for the unclear resolution criterion.

Resolved this one due to technicality re: marijuana pardons. Wrote new question here.

Resolving to Yes, based on Federal marijuana pardons.

And writing another question that references a specific data source.

Argument for YES: Biden issued a mass pardon for marijuana that affects 6500 (or more) people.

Argument for NO: These pardons have not been counted under OPAs clemency statistics.

We wait for @GustavoLacerda to arbitrate this, if he doesn't, hand this off to @mods

@ScipioFabius if @GustavoLacerda had included a source for which the numbers would be drawn in the description the discrepancy in the title would be fine (this is why clear resolution criteria is SO important to good markets). They did not, and thus the clear reading of the title applies. The market should be resolved YES or made N/A. I think N/A is a mistake. Finding opportunities where the clear meaning of a title differs from what bettors think is one of the best ways to win in Manifold and should not be discouraged by punting with N/A.

@KirkTaylor Yes, but in that case writing a question that should resolve immediately upon publishing (due to being true by the reading of the question) should also be discouraged. OP creating another market basically admits this mistake, so should have been N/Ad. But alas

@ScipioFabius learning experience for everyone

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/8/23393412/biden-marijuana-pardons-decriminalization

"The New York Times reported that the pardons will affect about 6,500 people convicted of simple marijuana possession between 1992 and 2021 under federal law, as well as thousands more under DC code, White House officials said on a call with reporters."

bought Ṁ500 YES

Biden has already pardoned more PEOPLE than Trump

bought Ṁ500 YES

This can already be resolved YES based on marijuana pardons alone

Do the weed pardons count. That would be 6500...

Putting a small YES bet due to lack of clarity in the criteria...

bought Ṁ100 YES

@SuperTaxGenius eh...going all in...I don't see any way this isn't already a YES.

bought Ṁ300 NO

@SuperTaxGenius Going by the clemency statistics in the other comment, it doesn't seem they count., so NO as of now.

@ScipioFabius those aren't accurate. At least two hundred people went through the process to obtain a pardon for Marijuana offenses.

@SuperTaxGenius Are you saying the figure just hasn't been updated?

@ScipioFabius I'm saying they are ignoring the blanket pardons for marijuana offenses. He authorized thousands of them and hundreds of people have applied and received them. Just because they aren't "named" pardons doesn't mean they aren't pardoned. The plain language of the market, as well as all these sites aggregating or comparing pardons should include them. I have no idea why they aren't but, by any measure, Biden has pardoned an enormous number of people.

@SuperTaxGenius Yeah, there is a mismatch between the question title being 'people' but the description being just 'pardons' . I think a blanket pardon for many people gets counted as a single pardon.

@ScipioFabius not by the plain language of the question and common sense. Either resolve YES or whatever the unable to resolve category is.

Biden has issued 25 pardons so far.

https://www.justice.gov/pardon/clemency-statistics

bought Ṁ300 NO from 96% to 80%
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