I really want to be wrong! I’m not sure if it’s eligible for Best Original Song, so it would get a nom for Original Screenplay or Supporting Actor for Fassbender

Assuming any category is fine?

Of course I forgot about that one

I be fair, I don't think that the fact that it's Ireland's entry means it inherently wins a nomination - but that's a relatively solid bet

I’ve seen it and it’s currently my #7 movie of the year, though I’m a bit biased towards the underlying content.

I think it’s got a fair shot, it’s really good

Oh I had no idea some international entries were selected so early!

But 70% still seems very high. Ireland got an international nom for the quiet girl (which I enjoyed) and looks like one shortlist last decade, but that’s about it. Unless there’s a true big name juggernaut (parasite, all quiet on the western front, etc) it’s not really a category you can count on.

(Not based on anything, I haven’t seen it, only that it’s a modest scale movie)