What will be true of the Polaris Dawn space mission?
31
แน30k
resolved Sep 12
Resolved
YES
First commercial extravehicular activity (EVA)
Resolved
YES
EVA takes place at ~430 miles altitude
Resolved
YES
Reaches an record-breaking apogee (>1368 km)
Resolved
YES
Launches during September 2024
Resolved
N/A
EVA lasts over 1 hour
Resolved
NO
Launches during August 2024
Resolved
NO
Launches during October 2024

https://polarisprogram.com/dawn/

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@mods please change "EVA lasts over 1 hour" to NA

You have to make sure the tag actually goes through by clicking in the dropdown menu
@mods

"The time of an Extra-vehicular Activity (EVA), commonly known as a spacewalk, is measured by the duration from when the astronauts switch their spacesuits to internal power until the time they switch back to the spacecraft's power upon re-entry." But now I'm told there is no "internal power" at all for the suits. I think this should resolve as NA because the written resolution criteria is clearly nonsensical. When betting, I went by my guess on what the criteria ment, and assumed there is some internal power period when the astronauts are outside the capsule or thereabouts.

I'll accept a negative resolution too, if the switch to internal power did not happen, since it was impossible...

SpaceX clock has the EVA as 1hr+. If you use this definition I think maybe not? https://x.com/planet4589/status/1834178988433916048

@SamuelWestwood On the bottom comment, Gordon commented on what counts as an EVA.

"The time of an Extra-vehicular Activity (EVA), commonly known as a spacewalk, is measured by the duration from when the astronauts switch their spacesuits to internal power until the time they switch back to the spacecraft's power upon re-entry."

If the two astronauts are on suit power at the same time, I will only count this time once, otherwise I'll add them together (even though technically that would be two EVAs)

Best I can tell that's basically the same thing SpaceX is tracking

EVA lasts over 1 hour
bought แน996 EVA lasts over 1 hour YES

1 hour elapsed

"The time of an Extra-vehicular Activity (EVA), commonly known as a spacewalk, is measured by the duration from when the astronauts switch their spacesuits to internal power until the time they switch back to the spacecraft's power upon re-entry." How do we know when those power switches happened?

AIUI SpaceX went by "When did the suit start being an isolated environment with its own oxygen". I don't think the suit has anything like its own power supply. imo the SpaceX EVA time matches the closest to what Gordon said.

I don't think spacex definition matters, because it has no relation really to what Gordon says. "oxygen" is not "power" by any definition, plus the suits did not have an "internal" oxygen supply in any case..

If you claim that then you would also claim that no EVA took place at all according to this market. That doesn't seem right.

From the discussion I got an impression that Gordon wanted to use a different definition than SpaceX for the duration (otherwise why not just define it as "whatever spacex says"), and I basically bet based on the uncertainty of what is meant. But whatever, no big deal.

@Goodgulf Initially it wasn't clear whether SpaceX was going to give a clear time. I tried to press Gordon on details because I was afraid of exactly this kind of ambiguity.

Some more context:

EVA takes place at ~430 miles altitude

EVA underway, current altitude >430 miles

Hatch is open

bought แน500 EVA lasts over 1 hour YES

EVA takes place at ~430 miles altitude

The EVA is tomorrow at 2:23 ET I believe (8:23 Central Europe time).

.

bought แน488 Reaches an record-br... YES

The apogee-raising burn is now complete. The Polaris Dawn crew and Dragon are now on their way to an altitude of ~1,400 km
https://x.com/SpaceX/status/1833663669164703961

not quite enough to resolve but getting close

For extra confirmation and accuracy:

Launches during September 2024

This one resolves Yes, the other months resolve No