The flight is AC761 from YUL to SFO at 8.05am.
On Wednesday the flight attendants’ union gave a 72 hour strike notice:
Related market:
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,312 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,541 | |
| 3 | Ṁ508 | |
| 4 | Ṁ285 | |
| 5 | Ṁ202 |
My replacement flight with a different airline got cancelled too 😂
@GoodGuesser What’s the etiquette on insider trading in cases like this? I could have bet it to 100% after receiving the text but that seemed wrong
@GoodGuesser I think it’s kinda up to us to watch your trades, if one of us sees you buying up we can always react
You can only actively buy to 99% now instead of 100% (although you can still sell to nearly 100% if you owned a lot of the other share type).
You're taking on re-resolution risk. What if they text you 5 minutes later saying it was a mistake and it was never canceled and the message came in error? Or in any other market type where a re-resolution could occur. Your bets in the wrong direction could be exceptionally costly.
This might not be fully understood by everyone, but when a market resolves, you get paid out your share of the AMM pool. So if the market closes with 1000 Yes shares in the Pool and you provided 50% of the liquidity for the market, you get 500 mana from those Yes shares. It's not profit, but you get the mana. In this case, another user supplied 2500 mana so by betting at the last second, you're specifically 'stealing' money from that user. Something to think about at least.
@Eliza Thanks. Re: 3, so am I correct in thinking that if no other user had provided liquidity, then purchasing a load of shares immediately before resolving would have no effect on my ultimate mana balance (but would increase my profit)?
@GoodGuesser Right, it would increase your profit.
(IF the site decided that market creators could not score "profit" points on their own markets, then you would have no incentive at all to change the AMM before resolving.)
Looks less likely now
@Magnify following your link it says that today’s flight is cancelled but tomorrow’s is still scheduled. Air Canada also haven’t notified me of its cancellation yet. So I think it’s too early to resolve