GBU-57 bomb used in Iran?
22
100Ṁ2410resolved Jun 22
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The GBU-57 is the biggest bomb for ground penetration. It can go deeper than 50 meters and multiple can be used to go even deeper. It can be used against Iran to hit deep nuclear facilities.
If it's used in the next 30 days this will resolve as yes.
Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified that this market requires confirmation that the GBU-57 bomb was specifically used, not just any type of bunker-buster bomb.
Update 2025-06-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will resolve the market to YES based on the 'spirit of the bet'. A bomb used does not need to be confirmed as a GBU-57 specifically, as long as it is a comparable weapon like another 30,000-pound bunker buster.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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