Since it’s likely not to be clarified by question owner, I guess it’s worth explicitly saying the resolution criteria I have assumed while betting on this market, based on previous comments by several users:
If Trump is imprisoned or serves house arrest (before or after a criminal conviction) before 1/31/25 (market close), resolves YES
If other bettors have been betting on different assumptions, it might be good to discuss this now instead of at market close.
@AdamK I don't have a strong opinion about this, but I could imagine counting pre conviction imprisonment.
@BenjaminIkuta If Trump is imprisoned pre-conviction, I think it would be fair to say he’s “doing time.” I agree with you, and I’ll edit my earlier comment
@AdamK this is also how I was interpreting it. I'll avoid having a position here so I can keep an eye on this as a mod.
Arb opp (assuming prison or house arrest by 1/31/25) https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned
@Gigacasting You never responded to requests to clarify this market. Title should probably be changed to “Will Trump do time by 2025?”
Does this market use the same criteria as the above market in terms of house arrest counting toward “doing time”?