At any meeting.
Jan/Feb 31-1
March 21-22*
May 2-3
June 13-14*
July 25-26
September 19-20*
Oct/Nov 31-1
December 12-13*
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BowTrixbought Ṁ43 of NO
https://kalshi.com/events/RATECUT-23DEC31/markets/RATECUT-23DEC31
This real money prediction market is identical. Bought NO on the thesis that real money prediction rates are more efficient than play money rates.
Gigacastingbought Ṁ20 of YES
Somewhat surprised Kalshi is so disconnected from implied forward rates
(Disclaimer: not financial advice and not an original screengrab, but presumably is about 9 orders of magnitude higher volume and signal if true)
BowTrixis predicting NO at 40%
@Gigacasting That is indeed interesting. It could be that the Kalshi market is mispriced. Although, I don't know if this could be arbitraged.
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🛥️ 30 aristocrats' butlers hold YES 🛥️
Ṁ2,135
Ṁ673
Ṁ84
Ṁ57
Ṁ39
Ṁ21
Ṁ20
Ṁ20
Ṁ19
Ṁ18
Ṁ17
Ṁ13
✊ 30 strong hold NO ✊
Ṁ673
Ṁ468
Ṁ186
Ṁ140
Ṁ136
Ṁ93
Ṁ86
Ṁ61
Ṁ56
Ṁ53
Ṁ40
Ṁ38
Ṁ20
Ṁ20
Ṁ20
Ṁ19
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