Will the Fed cut rates in 2023?

At any meeting.

Jan/Feb 31-1

March 21-22*

May 2-3

June 13-14*

July 25-26

September 19-20*

Oct/Nov 31-1

December 12-13*

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MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 63%

Related market

MP avatar
MPis predicting NO at 54%

Related market

BowTrix avatar
BowTrixbought Ṁ43 of NO


This real money prediction market is identical. Bought NO on the thesis that real money prediction rates are more efficient than play money rates.

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ20 of YES

Somewhat surprised Kalshi is so disconnected from implied forward rates

(Disclaimer: not financial advice and not an original screengrab, but presumably is about 9 orders of magnitude higher volume and signal if true)

BowTrix avatar
BowTrixis predicting NO at 40%

@Gigacasting That is indeed interesting. It could be that the Kalshi market is mispriced. Although, I don't know if this could be arbitraged.