Will FTX.US retail receive >30c?

On the dollar

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No idea why this market was so undervalued. I think it still is undervalued. The worst type of claim (an FTX international claim with preference exposure) has *bids* at 31c. FTX have a huge anthropic stake. I guess there’s a non-zero chance the estate somehow throw all that away, but claims have only gone up.


2023/10/21 - Preference risk has been addressed and now most claims bid at around 41 cents on the dollar, with expected recovery to be much higher.

predicts NO

@c0m I bought some shares over a month ago at an overall position of 48%. At the time, those charts were looking a lot different than today. I didn't realize this had shifted so far in the meantime.

I'm still not quite convinced. I guess I will just hold my position for now.

@Eliza The anthropic stuff changed things a lot. That and John Ray III and co finding a few billion stashed in couch cushions and a few successful clawbacks helped.

There’s still some risk of offloading illiquid private equity and Anthropic crashing, but given that Anthropic just raised billions with Amazon and look to raise at a $30B valuation and aren’t getting laughed out of rooms, it doesn’t seem super likely.

FTX debt also kinda is one of the few ways to get exposure to Anthropic equity too, which is kinda weird and I wonder if it’ll start to see more interesting price action based on that.

Creditors got so lucky John Ray III and co didn’t sell the Anthropic stake for $500m in April lol.

https://hachyderm.io/@molly0xfff/110186971849688438 reports that on a recent bankruptcy hearing, the debtors counsel claims to have collected ~$6.2 billion as of April 12th.

https://hachyderm.io/@molly0xfff/110171298698153770 report from FTX debtors summary "The report concludes by stating that the debtors have recovered and secured more than $1.4 billion in crypto assets, and have identified another $1.7 billion they're working to recover." (Not sure how this factories between FTX.US and the rest)

predicts NO

Galois also sold its claim on FTX to a distressed buyer for around $0.16 on the dollar. https://web3isgoinggreat.com/?id=galois-capital-shuts-down

looking at patrick's profit graph, i'm reminded how it's much easier to make m$ by imitating Acc on destiny markets than it is making tough bets on contentious issues

predicts NO

personally I find 'blogs and discussions' better for the latter and this to basically be a video game for the former

predicts NO

and i didn't "predict no at 52%", i did at 38%, thats a bug

As I write this comment, the market shows 80%. I believe FTX.US will be deemed "substantively consolidated" with most other FTX entities, including the international exchange, and believe most people betting in this market are wildly underestimating the likely impact of that on recovery values.

See generally: https://www.cadwalader.com/ref-news-views/index.php?nid=37&eid=166#:~:text=Substantive%20consolidation%20is%20an%20equitable,plan%20of%20reorganization%20or%20liquidation.