What will be the next AI breakthrough event?
20
1kṀ730resolved Jan 22
50%7%
Chatbot
30%0.6%
Writing
20%1.0%
Coding
3%Other
38%
Video generation
0.4%
Turing test
1.4%
Human-like chatbot (audio+speech)
0.9%
Superhuman driving
0.7%
World conquest
1.5%
Beating real-time video games.
0.0%
Proving several math conjectures
26%
Audio generation
0.6%
Test taker
1.0%
Image generation
1.0%
3D generation
0.8%
Robotics/physical tasks
16%
Completing tasks on websites/apps
Resolves to largest three events (50%, 30%, 20%) by close.
Examples of events and what text would match—
Alpha Zero: reinforcement learning
GPT-3: language model
DALL-E: image generation
Judged entirely by media/search trends, e.g.
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