What percent of position digits will be YES?
11
68
Ṁ160Ṁ190
resolved May 12
Resolved as
75%1D
1W
1M
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Currently there are 4 yes positions with between 10 and 34, 2 yes positions of less than 10 and 1 no position with 33. If it stayed at that, would it resolve as 4*2+2/(5*2+2) = 10/12 = 83.3%.
If so, one extra position of 10 yes would push final result up to 85.7% but an extra position of 10 no would push it down to 71.4% so it is likely to be easier and more profitable to push final outcome towards 50%. However the market is not at 83% it is at 68% so adding just one no bet would lose money.
Seems like people would have to arrange to co-operate to push value down but if they don't, adding yes bets may make sense.
Have I understood this correctly?