Large language model prediction: 2023 will see the first death attributable to Gary Marcus
9
54
แน341แน170
resolved Jan 12
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES, if irresponsible FUD prevents lives being saved by AI
Get แน200 play money
๐ Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | แน21 | |
| 2 | แน3 | |
| 3 | แน0 | |
| 4 | แน0 | |
| 5 | แน0 |
Sort by:
@Gigacasting well, that potentially life saving use of AI wasn't prevented, right? How are we going to judge what AI models or use cases were actually prevented and what these could have done?
Related questions
Universal Death Market - Which public figures will die before 2025? [Unlinked Free Response]
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
44% chance
Will the Effective Altriusm philosophy be directly responsible for at least one death in 2024?
35% chance
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
16% chance
Who will release the first model to be credibly accused of being responsible for at least 100 deaths?
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
15% chance
Major blunder in a physics paper attributed to AI by the end of 2025
44% chance
Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?
19% chance
Life in America 2023: The increase in car crash deaths continues?
12% chance
Assuming a misaligned AI outbreak inadvertently kill >1 million people by 2035, who will be at fault?