Large language model prediction: 2023 will see the first death attributable to Gary Marcus
9
170Ṁ341resolved Jan 12
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES, if irresponsible FUD prevents lives being saved by AI
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ21 | |
| 2 | Ṁ3 | |
| 3 | Ṁ0 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
Sort by:
@Gigacasting well, that potentially life saving use of AI wasn't prevented, right? How are we going to judge what AI models or use cases were actually prevented and what these could have done?
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a Large Language Model save a human life through medical advice by the end of 2025?
90% chance
Will Gary Marcus get AGI-pilled in 2025?
7% chance
Will Gary Marcus dunk on OpenAI's next big model release by saying that the model still fails in predictable ways?
84% chance
Will Gary Marcus' legs be turned into paperclips (or similarly affected by AI) before he predicts AGI within 2.5 years?
13% chance
Will Gary Marcus state that AGI has been achieved before 2030?
19% chance
Will Gary Marcus be revealed to be, and have always been, GPT-5?
48% chance
In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?
44% chance
Will Gary Marcus still say that deep learning models can't reason after they prove the Riemann hypothesis?
33% chance
In 2028, will LLMs still
be able to get Gary Marcus to make egregious errors?
91% chance
Who will publicly release the first language model to be credibly accused of being responsible for 100 deaths?