Will Manifold have at least 20 active users from China before 2024?
19
136
280
resolved Jan 22
Resolved
YES

Wondering about Manifold's outreach in other countries.
To remain well calibrated it seems beneficial to have locals, or at least people who speak a language and follow specific areas more closely.

Resolves YES if there are at least 20 users who reside in China and who place bets at least once a week.
(As much as I can figure, either by stats page, or asking in a #Chinese channel in discord if there is one by then, or other methods, feel free to advise.)

Sep 2, 2:00pm: Those in Hong Kong or Macau count as half.

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📢Resolved to YES ; Resolving YES based on the fact Manifold probably saw an increase in users from that area of the planet during LK99.


@GeorgeVii Can you please resolve? Thanks

@SG Are there current stats to resolve this?

predicted YES

@GeorgeVii, do you plan on only counting users from Hong Kong and Macau (as they are the only places we have accurate stats), or will you estimate the number under the Great Firewall as well?

Do Taiwanese (Republic of China) users count?

@a you can ask them!

We might have that number already, but it'd be impossible to know given that everyone would be using a VPN. (We had 15 active users from Hong Kong in the last 30 days, for instance.)

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@SG Do you have current stats? Manifold's grown a good bit in the last 8 months :)

@RobertCousineau 32 users from Hong Kong who performed at least one DAU action in the last 30 days. Still no way to tell number of users in mainland China given the ban. But we're almost certainly over 20 if you're counting people from HK as half.

bought Ṁ40 of YES

@SG Any numbers from Macau?

1. Manifold was banned in China, users from mainland China will need a VPN to access Manifold. Is this market focusing on those who only physically located in China only?

2. Do users from Hongkong SAR and Macau SAR count in this market? These two locations have access to Manifold.

@stormtk293 Ah I didn't know this, thanks for the update.
I am mostly interested in mandarin speakers. I will count those in HK & Macau as half a point.
I guess it might be hard to tell if someone is from mainland China then, hmm 🤔

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@stormtk293 There is a question about whether or not Manifold as banned in China!!

predicted YES

@stormtk293 Where are you based?

@BTE Macau. the Monte Carlo of the East.

@BTE Afaik, Manifold is not completely banned in China. You can't do any actions, but you can view the entire website.