@patio11 Insider information about the deal?

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-caroline-ellison-be-sentenced?r=QmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ

Will Caroline Ellison be sentenced to any prison time?

66% chance. Pretrial detention does not count. Closing date may be extended as needed.

https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-caroline-ellison-be-imprisoned?r=QmVuamFtaW5Ja3V0YQ

Will Caroline Ellison be imprisoned at all?

50% chance. Pretrial detention DOES count. Closing date may be extended as needed.

You don't go from facing 110 years to less than 4. The sentencing guidelines will dictate this, judges only have so much leeway in a federal court.

@BTE You do a lot of the time actually, the 110 number is a meme. Though you're not incorrect to buy yes here.

That's a lot to plea to. I wouldn't be surprised if she gets >4.