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Will violent military engagements take place between the USA and Iran before the end of 2024?
39
Ṁ730Ṁ3.2k
resolved Feb 12
Resolved
YES

Any violent action between US military and Iranian military forces anywhere in the world resulting in casualties before the end of 2024 will resolve as YES.

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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC; Persian: سپاه پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی Sepāh-e Pāsdārān-e Enqelâb-e Eslâmī, lit. 'Army of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution'), also called Sepah or Pasdaran, is a multi-service primary branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. It was officially established by Ruhollah Khomeini as a military branch in May 1979, in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution.[1][5] Whereas the Iranian Army protects the country's sovereignty in a traditional capacity, the IRGC's constitutional mandate is to ensure the integrity of the Islamic Republic.[6] Most interpretations of this mandate assert that it entrusts the IRGC with preventing foreign interference in Iran, thwarting coups by the traditional military, and crushing "deviant movements" that harm the ideological legacy of the Islamic Revolution.[7] Currently, the IRGC is designated as a terrorist organization by Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Sweden and the United States.[8][9] From Wiki.

IRGC are analogous to the Nazi SS.

@George US confirmed that they targeted IRGC targets:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/02/politics/us-strikes-iraq-syria/index.html

Here's France24 saying the same:

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240203-what-we-know-about-us-strikes-on-iran-targets-in-iraq-syria

IRGC is a branch of the Iranian armed forces:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps?wprov=sfla1

These news reports seem to me to be credible. Revolutionary Guard is a government armed force of Iran targeted by US military munitions. US military targeted IRG facilities.

@George US confirmed that they targeted IRGC targets:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/02/politics/us-strikes-iraq-syria/index.html

Here's France24 saying the same:

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240203-what-we-know-about-us-strikes-on-iran-targets-in-iraq-syria

IRGC is a branch of the Iranian armed forces:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps?wprov=sfla1

These news reports seem to me to be credible. Revolutionary Guard is a government armed force of Iran targeted by US military munitions. US military targeted IRG facilities.

@George I'm curious to see what lead to the resolution. Not asking out of any disagreement, mind you.

predictedYES

If Iran retaliated with uniformed armed forces against uniformed US military. As I recall now they did fire missiles from Iranian territory at US military bases (with advance warning). Under those circumstances this resolves as YES.

@George Am I misunderstanding? Aren't you saying that this should resolve YES? Why didn't you resolve?

@Shump He’s talking of the retaliation after soleimani killing i think, long before the market.

@George Why didn't the recent engagement between US and Iran count? Both fired at and killed uniformed military people.

@Shump Could you sent a link to news report. The conflict must be between uniformed armed forces of both countries not proxy militias.

@lukres Correct before this market was created.

@George US confirmed that they targeted IRGC targets:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/02/02/politics/us-strikes-iraq-syria/index.html

Here's France24 saying the same:

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20240203-what-we-know-about-us-strikes-on-iran-targets-in-iraq-syria

IRGC is a branch of the Iranian armed forces:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps?wprov=sfla1

The attack on US troops in Jordan was committed by militias, apologies.

@Shump You are correct.

predictedYES

@soweliSon Negative. In the past.

predictedNO

@George If the Solemani assasination occured in 2024, would this market resolve YES?

@soweliSon Solemani was a government office in Iranian military uniform killed by US armed forces (including intelligence agencies such as CIA then YES. )

Do the air strikes today count?

predictedYES

@PBlake142 No. Armed forces in uniforms of both nations, not proxy militias.