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MANIFOLD
Musk v. openAI trial prop bets [add answers]
13
Ṁ13kṀ12k
Jul 30
43%
Defense win, case is dismissed or no remedies are ordered
25%
Structural Reversion: OpenAI is ordered to dissolve its for-profit arm or return to a structure where the non-profit has total veto power over all commercial activity.
24%
Licensing Restriction: The court restricts or nullifies OpenAI's exclusive licensing agreement with Microsoft (MSFT).
23%
Total damages awarded (even if funneled back to the non-profit) exceed $10 billion
15%
Executive Ouster: Court orders the removal or suspension of any current OpenAI executive (Altman, Brockman, etc.).
11%
Musk is held in comtempt or fined for posting on X
10%
The court admits any conversation between Musk and an AI (i.e. Grok or ChatGPT)
6%
Forced Open Sourcing: The court mandates the public release of weights or research for a specific frontier model (e.g., GPT-4 or GPT-5.5).
5%
Surprise witness: Ilyra or Mira are called to testify against Altman

Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on the final judgment, ruling, or settlement in the lawsuit filed by Elon Musk against OpenAI, Sam Altman, and Greg Brockman. Each option resolves to "Yes" if that specific outcome is explicitly ordered by the court or included as a binding term in a public settlement agreement. If a settlement occurs, it must be officially filed and documented to resolve these options. If multiple outcomes occur, multiple options may resolve "Yes."

  • Executive Ouster: A court-ordered removal or suspension of a current OpenAI executive (specifically Sam Altman or Greg Brockman).

  • Structural Reversion: A court order mandating the dissolution of OpenAI's for-profit arm, or a mandate returning to a structure where the non-profit board holds absolute veto power over commercial activity.

  • Total damages awarded: A court-ordered award or settlement payment exceeding $10 billion USD.

  • Forced Open Sourcing: A court order mandating the public release of model weights or research for any frontier model (e.g., GPT-4 or successors).

  • Licensing Restriction: A court order or settlement that nullifies or materially restricts OpenAI's exclusive licensing agreements with Microsoft.

  • Defense win: The case is dismissed, or a final judgment is entered where no remedies or damages are awarded against the defendants.

If the lawsuit is ongoing as of the resolution date, or if a ruling does not match these specific outcomes, this market may be resolved based on official court filings available via the PACER system or major legal news reporting (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg).

Background

Elon Musk initiated litigation against OpenAI and its leadership, alleging breaches of the company’s original founding agreement, which aimed to develop Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) for the benefit of humanity rather than for profit. The complaint challenges the transition of OpenAI into a capped-profit structure and its close commercial relationship with Microsoft. These options cover the primary legal and structural remedies sought or hypothesized in the ongoing dispute.

This description was generated by AI.

Market context
AI
OpenAI
AI Impacts
Elon musk
Elon Musk
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I think I fumbled by adding too much liquidity too early. If you can't afford to add answers, comment them and I will add the best ones

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