[Temporary market to group comments and feedback. I'll adjust the description and terms before officially starting it. If lots of people bet before it starts I may NA this one and make another one. There will be a series of markets about geoengineering covering different time scales and different organizations doing the work such as the usgov, in, EU, China, as well as other private companies. Please let me know what you think here or in discord]

Musk, an existing company he founded, or a future company he founds will announce actual projects happening to do very large scale geoengineering to effect or relieve global warming by removing carbon from the atmosphere, or by reducing light absorption to the atmosphere using solar sails or umbrellas, or by emitting sulfur to reflect more light, or other project large scale. It would also count if they create and sell a consumer device to achieve a distributed effect.

The point is whether they will do this very actively, by directly changing and interfering with the physical earth.

Politics doesn't count. Improving efficiency doesn't count. Donations to other geoengineering projects don't count. It has to be Musk or his proxies directly making machines which are intended to actually address the problem directly and physically.

It doesn't cover addressong symptoms like helping refugees get water, shoring up dams, building cheap housing, making permafrost stable, etc. It's not about fixing the effects. It's about preventing the actual heating up.

If there is a large effect like a moved jet stream, mega hurricanes, etc which Musk works on, if the work is about fixing the glival warming cause, it would count. But if it's something like "geoengineering to prevent the formation of mega hurricanes by seeding silver into clouds when we notice a risk" it wouldn't count since that doesn't address the root problem.

The project should have a budget of at least 5b 2023 USD and work must start before due date 2033 Jan 1