Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a Russian missile physically enters the airspace or territory of any NATO member state by December 31, 2025. Resolution is based on official statements from NATO member governments, NATO itself, or credible reporting from established news organizations. Incidents must involve confirmed airspace violations, not near-misses or debris from intercepted missiles. Accidental crossings count; intentional strikes are not required.

Background

Russian drones have repeatedly violated Polish airspace, and several NATO allies including Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Romania have recently experienced airspace violations by Russia. However, drones and missiles entering NATO airspace have not been treated as attacks on the alliance so far. Russian President Vladimir Putin has been careful to avoid mistakes and misunderstandings that might trigger direct engagement between Russia and NATO countries. Russia has deployed the intermediate-range Oreshnik missile, described as retaliation for Western weapons supplied to Ukraine.

Considerations

The distinction between drones and missiles matters for this market. Russian and Ukrainian projectiles have at times crossed into Polish and other NATO national airspace, but most documented incursions have involved drones rather than missiles. A missile crossing NATO borders would represent a significant escalation from the pattern of drone violations observed to date.