Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if between Jan 1–Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), a NATO member’s armed forces intentionally shoot down and destroy a crewed aircraft operated by or on behalf of the Russian state (e.g., Russian Armed Forces, National Guard, FSB/Border Guard). Location (NATO airspace or elsewhere) does not matter. Verification requires either: (a) an official statement by NATO or the involved member government, or (b) confirmation by at least two reputable outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC). Example official source: NATO Newsroom.

• Excluded: uncrewed systems (drones/UAVs), forced landings without a shootdown, warning shots, accidents/mechanical failures/collisions not caused by NATO fire, and actions by non‑NATO operators (including Ukraine) using NATO-supplied weapons.

• If facts are disputed, resolution waits until responsibility is publicly acknowledged by the NATO state or reported by two reputable outlets as above. If no qualifying acknowledgment/coverage by Mar 1, 2026, resolves NO.

Background

• Tensions and airspace incidents on NATO’s eastern flank have intensified in 2025. On Sept 9–10, NATO and Poland reported shooting down multiple Russian drones that entered Polish airspace during strikes on Ukraine; Poland then sought Article 4 consultations.

• Estonia alleged three Russian MiG‑31s violated its airspace for ~12 minutes in Sept 2025, prompting NATO consultations; Moscow denied it.

• Poland and others have since stated they will shoot down clear airspace violators.

• Precedent: a NATO member last downed a crewed Russian warplane in Nov 2015, when Turkey shot down a Su‑24 near the Syria–Turkey border.

Considerations

• NATO now includes 32 members (Finland joined 2023; Sweden 2024), expanding potential engagement zones in the High North/Baltic region.

• “Shoot down” can include air‑to‑air or ground‑based intercepts (e.g., Patriots) operated by a NATO state; engagements against drones do not count.

• Russia often disputes incursion claims; this market relies on NATO/member confirmation or multi‑source reporting to avoid resolving on contested narratives.