Throughout 2025, NATO–Russia tensions have escalated, with repeated reports of Russian military aircraft violating NATO allies’ airspace. Some analysts warn that NATO may be forced to respond more forcefully.
This market resolves YES if, on or before 31 December 2025, NATO takes direct military action against Russia, defined as:
Shooting down a Russian military aircraft (officially confirmed by NATO or a NATO member state), OR
Deploying NATO combat troops to Ukraine under a NATO mandate or explicitly as a NATO mission.
It resolves NO if neither event occurs by the end of 2025.
Exclusions:
Airspace interceptions, escorting, warnings, sanctions, weapons deliveries, intelligence support, or training do not count.
Actions by individual NATO members acting bilaterally (outside a NATO framework) do not count as “NATO action.”
Resolution source: Confirmation from at least two major international outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT).
Update 2025-09-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Drone shootdowns do not count toward the "military aircraft" criterion; destroying unmanned drones (e.g., Shaheds) alone will not resolve YES.
Outside a NATO framework means a NATO member explicitly acts unilaterally and states the action did not involve NATO; such actions do not count.
1,000@MindBenderMads Do drones (e.g. Shaheds) count as "military aircraft"? What does "outside a NATO framework" mean?
@SimonKletteraffe taking drones out alone won’t suffice, but taking drones out and declaring war or deploying troops would do.
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Outside NATO would be if a country decides to do something saying that it did not involve NATO, basically acting alone (very unlikely tho)