Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Trump orders or directs one or more additional military strikes (airstrikes, drone strikes, or similar offensive military operations) between now and December 31, 2025. Resolution is based on public announcements by Trump, the Department of Defense, or credible news reporting of strikes ordered by Trump. The market resolves NO if no additional strikes are ordered by year's end.

Background

Trump ordered a strike on Islamic State terrorists in Nigeria on December 25, 2025, following strikes on Iran's nuclear program and military buildup around Venezuela earlier in his second term. Trump launched more airstrikes on foreign nations in the first six months of his second term than Biden did in all four years he was in office. So far in 2025 there have been well over 500 U.S. bombings around the globe, including airstrikes on vessels in the Caribbean Sea positioned as a mission to fight maritime drug trafficking and at least 44 air strikes in Somalia.

Considerations

Defense Secretary Hegseth said there will be "more to come" regarding strikes, suggesting the administration may continue military operations. However, some Trump supporters have expressed concern about the frequency of bombings, with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene speaking up about fears the president was becoming too trigger happy.