Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the U.S. conducts additional military strikes against Islamic State militants or affiliated groups in Nigeria after December 25, 2025. Resolution will be based on official announcements from the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), or the Trump administration. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated there will be "more to come," indicating the administration's intent to conduct further operations. The market resolves NO if no additional strikes occur by the specified deadline.

Background

On December 25, 2025, U.S. president Donald Trump authorized strikes against Islamic State militants in northwest Nigeria. Trump has focused for the last several months on the plight of Christians in Nigeria, including calling on Hegseth in November to "prepare for possible action" and warning the US would enter Nigeria "guns-a-blazing" to protect the Christian population of Africa's most populous country. US Africa Command said it conducted the strikes in Sokoto state, which borders Niger to the north, "in coordination with Nigerian authorities." AFRICOM's initial assessment is that "multiple ISIS terrorists were killed in the ISIS camps."

Considerations

The reality on the ground is more nuanced than Trump's characterization suggests. Both Christians and Muslims – the two main religious groups in the country of more than 230 million people – have been victims of attacks by radical Islamists. Out of more than 20,400 civilians killed in attacks between January 2020 and September 2025, 317 deaths were from attacks targeting Christians while 417 were from attacks targeting Muslims, according to crisis monitoring group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data. Security experts say it is unclear whether such strikes can do much to hinder Islamist militants who have long menaced communities in the area.